A low-cost tier would clear its revenue target in year one and dilute the thing existing customers are paying for, and Maya has to choose with both costs real
The Tier That Would Work — Volume I, Understanding Humans Before Products · Identity · Dilemma · Practitioner. A low-cost tier would clear its revenue target in year one and dilute the thing existing customers are paying for, and Maya has to choose with both costs real
01 · Opening
A low-cost tier would clear its revenue target in year one and dilute the thing existing customers are paying for, and Maya has to choose with both costs real
02 · The setup
Sam brings a model, not an opinion. The cheap tier clears its number in eleven months on conservative assumptions.
Sam: Four thousand teams have asked for something at this price. I have the list.
03 · The setup
Proposed entry tier — Asked for it: 4,100 teams; Modelled year-one revenue: clears target; Build cost: one quarter; Existing base: 2,900 teams
04 · The evidence
Maya: What do our current customers say when you ask why they picked us?
Priya: Half of them say some version of it is what serious teams use.
05 · The evidence
That sentence is not on any feature list and it is doing work.
Maya thinks: They are buying a tool and something about who uses it. I cannot put a number on the second part.
06 · The evidence
Sam: You are turning down measurable revenue for a vibe.
Maya: I am saying the vibe is on the invoice and neither of us can price it.
07 · The evidence
Maya looks for the closest thing to evidence available, which is what happened to a comparable product two years ago.
What is knowable, and what is not — Year-one entry revenue: modelled; Entry support cost per team: modelled; Effect on premium renewals: unknown; Reversible within a year: no
08 · The evidence
Dev: If it goes wrong, can we take it away again?
Maya: Not from four thousand teams. That is the part that decides it.
09 · The evidence
Name what each choice costs, in its own units — Shipping costs some of the signal existing customers are buying. Not shipping costs a year of entry revenue and four thousand teams going elsewhere. Write both down before you argue.
Ask which one you can undo — A reversible mistake and an irreversible one are not the same size, whatever the spreadsheet says. Pricing you can raise. A tier you can withdraw from four thousand teams you cannot.
Set the tripwire before you decide — Name the number that would prove you wrong and when you will look at it. A decision with no tripwire is a decision you will defend rather than revisit.
10 · The evidence
Maya: We ship it, under a different name, with no shared workspace between the tiers.
Sam: And if premium renewals dip?
11 · The evidence
The tripwire is written into the launch doc before anything ships, with a date attached to it.
Maya thinks: If premium renewal falls two points by month nine, we were wrong and we stop selling it.
12 · You make the call
The story does not tell you first.
A. The revenue model, since it is the only quantified side
B. Whether the decision can be undone if it goes wrong
C. What existing customers say they would do
13 · What happened
Month nine. Premium renewal is flat, entry revenue is behind the model, and the tripwire gets checked on the date it said.
Sam: Slower than I said. Nothing broke.
Maya: Which is the outcome we agreed we could live with.
14 · Complete
When both arms are real and neither is knowable, reversibility breaks the tie and a tripwire keeps the decision honest. Next: why six weeks of work for three accounts can be the correct trade.